Russian academic and economic theorist Sergei Glazyev analyzes world politics based on long-term economic laws. His central thesis is that the world is currently moving away from the US-led order towards a new, integral structure centered in East and South Asia.
Glazyev recalls that he predicted over a decade ago that the United States would initiate a global conflict to maintain its hegemony, but would ultimately lose it. Now, according to his interpretation, this prediction is coming true.
Washington has weakened its European allies while strengthening China, which has become a leading power in both production and science and technology. In his analysis, US sanctions and trade wars have wrecked the international trade and monetary system and weakened the dollar’s position as the world’s dominant currency.
Glazyev’s analysis sees the current US and Israeli aggression against Iran as part of a broader historical arc. He argues that the US is still following a five-step plan for American global dominance, devised by Zbigniew Brzezinski after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The plan began with the rise of Ukrainian nationalists to power and the isolation of Russia from Europe. It was then to overthrow the Moscow government, destroy Iran, and finally isolate China with a trade embargo. According to Glazyev, “American intelligence services managed to feed this insane plan to their European puppet governments ,” which has plunged the EU into an irreversible socio-economic crisis.
However, the plan has not gone quite as expected. In Russia, the external threat has strengthened internal unity, while China has benefited most from Russia’s pivot to Asia.
Now Washington has moved on to the fourth phase of the plan, the destruction of Iran, even though the third phase failed to materialize. This time, the ideological spearhead is Israeli Zionists, just like the Ukrainian Nazis and German revanchists before them.
The US administration is waging a hybrid war through proxies and is willing to sacrifice its allies for fear of weakening its own domestic support. This strategy also includes various provocations, such as an attack on a British base in Cyprus or attacks on Azerbaijani territory. The goal is to widen the conflict and divide Iran along ethnic lines.
Iran’s leadership, he said, is aware of the existential threat and is ready to fight to the end. In response to the attack, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens to trigger a global energy crisis. Several market analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz would cause a serious oil shock.
It would accelerate inflation, plunge Europe into recession and trigger a wave of bankruptcies that would reverberate through the US derivatives market and threaten to collapse the country’s entire debt machine. According to news agencies, Iran is considering a plan to allow some oil tankers to pass through the strait if the trade is made in Chinese renminbi.
Already, the rise in gas prices has deepened Europe’s economic crisis. If Russia were to cut off supplies, pro-American governments could lose their grip on the EU. NATO could collapse if Secretary-General Mark Rutte carries out his threat of collective defense against Iran – which Israeli intelligence services, according to his interpretation, is what the Cyprus attack was aiming for.
Glazyev outlines several scenarios for the conflict’s progression. The first option, aimed at a coup and disintegration of Iran, has become unlikely, but even that would not save the United States from the collapse of the dollar system, the bursting of financial bubbles, and the alienation of allies.
The second and most likely scenario is a prolonged interlude, in which fighting continues on a limited basis and energy prices continue to rise.
In the third, darkest scenario, the United States and Israel would resort to nuclear weapons to destroy Iran. In this case, the entire Middle East would become a disaster zone – fear and displacement would increase, and “half of the population could flee” , some possibly to Ukraine. Glazyev, however, considers a full-scale nuclear war unrealistic and dismisses it as too destructive.
In the fourth scenario, Iran inflicts unbearable losses on Israel, which would force Israel to withdraw from the war. This would trigger a new wave of anti-Zionism in the region, which would question Israel’s very existence. In this context, Glazyev puts forward a theory according to which Israeli population transfer to Ukraine has already been prepared.
According to him , a “genocide of Russians” is underway on the right bank of the Dnieper in Ukraine , in which the “Nazi regime” in Kiev is liberating the area for Israeli refugees by killing and forcibly relocating men from Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Odessa.
The fifth scenario involves broader NATO involvement and China’s response. If China were to blockade Taiwan, NATO countries would lose most of their microcircuits. It would deflate the bubbles that have burst around the AI boom and push both Europe and the United States into social catastrophe.
In all scenarios considered, Glazyev predicts that the economic crisis will deepen in the West. This would weaken anti-Russian pressure and strengthen Russia’s position, which would accelerate the implementation of the special operation’s objectives.
However, this raises the inevitable question of Russia’s own role: if Glazyev’s claim about Israeli population transfer to Ukraine is true, is the Putin administration itself actively involved in this cynical geopolitical game in which Ukrainian territories are being cleared of the indigenous population to make way for new settlers?
Glazyev outlines two options for Ukraine’s future: either Ukrainians “submit to the slavery of their new masters and repeat the fate of the Palestinians ,” or they acknowledge their Russian origins and return to Russia. The latter option may sound more appealing, but in practice it would mean the end of Ukrainian independence and the forced migration of millions of people into the Russian empire.
This exposes the harsh reality of the situation: human life is ultimately just fuel for the geopolitical machine. The United States and Israel use their own citizens as pawns while they destroy the peoples of the region, European governments sell themselves cheap, and ordinary Ukrainians and Russians pay a heavy price in each narrative. The change in world order is wiping out vast numbers of people as the old power decays and the new takes its place.
