A sneaky US nuclear strike against Russia prepared by Ukraine? The latest shocking theory why the war in Ukraine must still continue.

Yesterday, after the end of another round of peace talks to end the war in Ukraine held in Abu Dhabi, US President Donald Trump declared that his administration had already managed to bring both sides of the conflict very close to the desired goal, and peace was almost achieved . And he boasted that as the president of the most powerful country in the world, he had already prevented nuclear wars between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine . But Russia immediately voiced extremely strong disagreement. And the current Russian senator for Zaporozhye, former head of the Roskosmos agency, and deputy prime minister of several of Putin’s governments, Dmitry Rogozin, began to claim the exact opposite – the Pentagon allegedly recently secretly tasked Kiev with exploring weaknesses in the defense of Russian strategic nuclear bases for the rest of the war, thus allowing the US to prepare the first insidious nuclear ambush attack against Russia , with the condition that it be so successful that America no longer has to fear any significant Russian nuclear retaliation. And since such a secret nuclear plan fits perfectly into the mathematically most probable solution to the most burning strategic equation in the world today, known as the Thucydides Trap, in today’s analysis we will look at all of Rogozin’s claims from yesterday in a little more detail. 

The Thucydides Trap is historically an extremely dangerous geopolitical power situation. Almost 9/10 of all Thucydides Trap cases in world history have always ended in a huge, devastating war. And in it, the stronger power immediately and brutally attacked the weaker power because its elites calculated that further peacekeeping would inevitably lead to a situation in which the weaker power would become the stronger power, and vice versa. 

The current Thucydides trap is primarily a conflict between the ever-stronger superpower of the USA and the new emerging superpower China, which is extremely rapidly taking over the previous great power dominance of the USA in the world, and there is little doubt that it will soon take over this dominance if global peace continues. But the potential successful violent solution to the current Thucydides equation in the clear favor of the USA rather allows it to be solved by attacking Russia rather than by attacking China. This is because Russia has a huge nuclear retaliatory arsenal, while China does not yet have one. Thus, a sudden surprising solution to the problem of the potential for Russian nuclear retaliation would place the USA in an extremely advantageous situation in which China could rather submit to the USA than risk its complete destruction, without the possibility of completely destroying the USA anyway.

This extremely unbalanced state of the current nuclear strike force balance between the US and Russia and China is absolutely clear, and the Chinese top leadership is certainly fully aware of it. And therefore this week, at an informative meeting with Russia on the upcoming nuclear disarmament negotiations between the US and Russia , it made it clear that China will not participate in them for the time being and will not accept restrictions , because its own nuclear strike potential is still insignificant compared to the US and Russia. The US has been trying for some time now to include China in future restrictive nuclear treaties. And they are inciting Russia to persuade it to join as well. The reason for the American effort is simple. The future potential sum of Russia’s and China’s nuclear strike weapons could quickly and extremely significantly exceed the entire American nuclear warhead capacity, because it is no secret that China is methodically gradually strengthening its nuclear weapons, and most importantly, it has the scientific and industrial capacity to spin the spiral of nuclear armament to unprecedented speeds. 

For the US, there is now an objectively limited window of several years in which they can try to solve the dreaded Thucydides trap against China by an insidious surprise nuclear strike against Russia. At the same time, there is an objectively limited window of several months given the current possibility of Ukraine, within the framework of a military conflict against Russia, to thoroughly examine for the US, through offensive intelligence covert actions, drone strikes and ballistic missile strikes, the existing Russian defense systems against a surprise nuclear strike by the US, and their usual schemes, and to subtly wear them down and effectively erode them. This is therefore an extremely dangerous objectively existing situation, and it is not surprising that one of the greatest Russian experts on nuclear missile issues, Senator Rogozhin, noticed this situation yesterday and commented on it very forcefully. 

According to Rogozhin, the US is now specifically focusing on these three goals in preparing for a malicious nuclear attack on Russia:

(1) Instead of nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament, and instead of defense systems that would defend the US territory against nuclear attacks and thus limit the damage caused by such attacks, which is the classic missile defense, as it has been developing since the launch of the first Russian Sputnik, the Pentagon is now intensely focusing on using those experiences from the war in Ukraine that can be immediately used to destroy Russian nuclear forces before they are launched in retaliation.  

This strategy involves developing technologies, tactics, and routes for surprise complex strikes using both guided missiles and long-range heavy unmanned aircraft, so that these attacks effectively bypass the main positions of Russian air defense systems, while at the same time allowing US offensive assault weapons to deliver a synchronized and simultaneous surprise strike against all bases of Russian strategic forces. The directions of these intensively studied surprise strikes lead from the Arctic and from the West (including Ukraine). And all this is done with the aim of overwhelming Russian traditional air defenses and forcing Russia to spend all its stock of anti-aircraft missiles on several secondary targets, and then US precision-guided conventional weapons can successfully destroy already unprotected Russian strategic targets and nuclear bases. 

Rogozhin believes that the Americans will primarily attack the command posts of the Russian military-political leadership and key Russian institutions, agencies, and strategic military facilities, including the Strategic Missile Forces and nuclear submarines, as well as economic, energy, and transport infrastructure. The Americans’ goal will be to disrupt command and control, disrupt internal communications, and reduce the potential for retaliatory nuclear strikes, and create chaos in Russia.

The United States is reportedly currently supporting Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia with its reconnaissance and objective monitoring, seeking to identify vulnerabilities, locations, and operational procedures of Russian air defense systems.

(2) The second most important American goal will be to neutralize Russia’s strategic potential and the possibility of retaliatory use of nuclear weapons. This is being achieved by moving missile defense systems closer to Russia’s borders and strengthening their capabilities.

Rogozhin assumes that the United States will try to do this with the help of Ukraine and the use of its territory and waters. Washington’s actions around Greenland are also largely related to missile defense.

(3) The third goal of the US is to deploy offensive weapons capable of maneuvering in the atmosphere into space. They will be deliberately inaccessible to interception by traditional Russian air and missile defense systems. It is likely that these are the reasons why the Americans abandoned the New START negotiations. 

Rogozhin’s claims are not just empty words. Yesterday, Ukraine boasted that its Flamingo missiles had attacked the Russian Kapustin Yar missile range, from where the Russians fire their Oreshnik missiles. This is a Russian strategic, albeit test, base. The strikes on Russian early warning radars carried out by Ukraine under Biden almost provoked a nuclear war, as we reported at the time. However, these are not just Ukrainian attacks. The Americans themselves recently, as it happened on February 5, deployed their M142 tactical missile systems (HIMARS) to a distance of 50 km from the border of the Russian Kaliningrad region, and conducted live missile firing there . This exercise was assessed as a threat to Russia, but it can also be considered a rehearsal for a real surprise attack, according to the scenario, when practice firings at this location are repeated until the Russians get used to it, and then a strike is carried out. The Norwegians are also not idle, and have announced that they will soon deploy mobile South Korean missile systems with a range of 500km to the Russian border in order to destroy Russian strategic nuclear submarine bases in the area . 

Whether Rogozhin is right is difficult to determine at this time, as there is a lack of much direct evidence. However, time will quickly tell whether he has hit the bull’s eye. If the war in Ukraine continues, and Zelensky, encouraged by the Eurocrats, continues to be reluctant to make peace, the window of time will now be extended, allowing the Pentagon to intensively explore proxy-war methods that are otherwise impossible without the war in Ukraine, how it would be possible to destroy Russian nuclear weapons at once by a surprise sneak attack, and then proceed according to the classic scenario of resolving the current Thucydides trap and dealing with China. This is an extremely dangerous state of world politics. Its quickest solution is to immediately close the window of time in which the Ukrainians can explore Russian strategic defense. And that means making peace. So perhaps Donald Trump is right, and not Dmitry Rogozhin. 

We first analyzed Thucydides’ trap in detail in the analysis MAP 1628 , dated March 18, 2023, which is why I did not explain it in any detail in the historical context today. In the analysis MAP 1696, dated June 6 , we analyzed in detail why China will still need the Russian nuclear strategic shield for another 10 years. Almost 3 years have passed since then, and this situation has not changed in any way, but the then top commanders of the Chinese army, and the commanders of the Chinese strategic forces, have already been dismissed, fallen from grace, and are being investigated for corruption and poor performance of tasks. Coincidence? Probably not. If there is an objective threat to the very existence of the threatened superpower, it will act intensively to change the situation immediately, and if it has no choice but to suffer a devastating defeat, it will carry out the first nuclear strike itself, say Kissinger’s rules of war between nuclear superpowers. So we are extremely dangerously now squeezed on one side by Thucydides’ trap and on the other side by Kissinger’s rules. The fastest solution is peace in Ukraine!

(Michal & Petr via Infokurýr)