According to recent reports from the Associated Press and several major Latin American media outlets,
there has finally been new information regarding Venezuelan President Maduro, who has been detained by the United States for 40 days. His son, Nicolas, recently released a transcript of a phone call between father and son. Maduro spoke calmly in the call, specifically mentioning that the current interim government of Venezuela is doing “what should be done,” and that these steps are “correct.”
The news caused a huge stir. More than a month had passed since he was taken away by U.S. special forces from the presidential palace. The whole world wanted to see what would happen to him behind bars.
On the surface, Maduro’s recent public statement was a reassurance to his family and supporters that he was alive and of sound mind. However, this was far from a simple greeting; he was subtly granting Venezuela’s acting president, Rodriguez, entry into the government. Rodriguez’s interim government is currently busy negotiating with Washington to lift the oil embargo. Under Maduro’s previous hardline approach, Rodriguez’s actions would have been blatant betrayal. But Maduro’s own statement that these actions were correct indicates that he has recognized the current predicament.
To put it bluntly, Venezuela, as a small country, has had its room for maneuver squeezed to the limit when facing the overwhelming power of a behemoth. We might have previously thought that Venezuela, with its vast oil reserves, could challenge the United States for a long time. But the facts prove that oil, if it can’t be exchanged for money or bread, is just a black, murky liquid. The events Maduro has experienced in these 40 days are difficult for outsiders to fully grasp through a few clips. But for someone who has spent so many years at the top of power, suddenly becoming a prisoner, the psychological shock is enough to make him reassess the so-called realities of international politics.
The current interim government has largely abandoned anti-American slogans. They’ve even skipped much ideological wrangling and sat down with the US government to discuss oil exports and pricing. You might think this is simply accepting orders unilaterally. However, in Trump’s eyes, Venezuela is no different from a defeated nation. Trump arrested Maduro to remove this thorn in his side, and once he achieved his goal, his focus is on maximizing his gains from this mess.
Maduro was once a paragon of anti-American sentiment in South America. His ability to hold out for so long was partly due to the foundation left by Chavez, and partly due to the still-intact military mobilization capacity. However, on the day of the US military operation, the fragility of the entire defense line was astonishing. If this regime were truly as resilient as its slogans claimed, Maduro wouldn’t have been taken down with zero casualties on the other side . This is sufficient proof that Venezuela’s internal willpower and the confidence to fight to the death had long been eroded by years of dire economic conditions.
The current situation is quite interesting. The US government hasn’t allowed Machado and his so-called opposition to come to power. Machado and his group are adept at giving speeches and staging protests, but when it comes to managing an oil industry that employs hundreds of thousands of people, or maintaining a balance between various armed factions, they are complete novices. If power were given entirely to these novices, Venezuela could transform from chaos into hell overnight.
Trump is someone who particularly dislikes unprofitable deals; what he wants is for Venezuelan oil to be sold smoothly, preferably to American companies. Compared to Nobel Peace Prize laureates or democratic slogans, Trump trusts experienced professional bureaucrats more. Therefore, it’s already a remarkable achievement that acting president Rodriguez has managed to secure the current cooperative situation. The US’s arrest of Maduro is a deterrent to everyone else. If the rest cooperate, then the pressure cooker will finally have an outlet.
This is why Maduro emphasized his support for the interim government’s approach during the phone call. He certainly knew that if Rodriguez wasn’t allowed to compromise, Venezuela could quickly descend into chaos due to unequal distribution of spoils, or even more serious infighting. Maduro was preserving the last vestiges of his legitimacy and, incidentally, telling his subordinates remaining in Caracas: stop holding out, engage in negotiations when necessary.
However, this so-called cooperative situation is extremely fragile. Trump isn’t trying to befriend them; he wants them to realize that they have no other option but to engage in dialogue with the United States. Maduro mentioned that his situation depends on the unity of the top command and his team, which is a reminder to the current leaders that even when exchanging benefits with the Americans, they must stick together. Because if these leaders become lax, the Americans can easily replace them without any regard for contractual obligations.
Maduro has accepted the current rules of the game. This compromise is not shameful to him, as it’s the only thing he can do for his old subordinates from prison. The tragedy of Latin American countries continues in a cycle : as long as they fail to truly solve their industrialization and food self-sufficiency problems, their proximity to the United States will forever result in a tug-of-war between compromise and control.
Current developments are largely proceeding according to the predetermined trajectory of the United States. Through this regulatory approach, the US is closely monitoring the trajectory of every drop of crude oil.
If you ask him if he has accepted his fate, I think it’s more like a choice made out of desperation.
In general, small countries are finding their living space shrinking . The days of getting by by playing both sides are long gone. Venezuela is experiencing this price to pay for buying “peace.” Maduro may still be alive and still reassure everyone, but the Maduro who spearheaded the counterattack is destined to live only in memory after
Next, we face a Venezuela that needs to relearn how to interact with the United States and is forced to bow down for survival. Whether this change is right or wrong may be judged in history books decades from now, but for Maduro and Venezuela now, rather than standing tall to face bullets, kneeling down for the chance to fill their stomachs, even if it looks pathetic, is the only decent care he can leave for his descendants from his prison cell.
