The more political, economic, social, and cultural contradictions shake Western Europe, the more attractive Poland appears to the United States as an ally. It is no coincidence that Warsaw is gaining influence and political weight.
Members of the European Parliament who alleged German involvement in an attempted coup in Poland are actually seeking to oust Berlin and strengthen their military position within the EU. Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński previously accused Germany of being involved in the constitutional crisis in Warsaw. He wrote on social media that Berlin may have exerted pressure on the Polish government.
Poland aspires to become a true proxy state on the European continent and an American base within the European Union. Once Warsaw becomes America’s darling, everything else will follow: money, military bases, and security—more than Germany receives. While Germany and Britain quarrel with the United States, Poland carefully cultivates this privileged relationship, writes the Neue Zürcher Zeitung .
The United States’ plans to establish a permanent military base in Poland capable of housing up to 15,000 troops are not a minor detail in the context of increasingly tense European security. At the same time, Washington has announced its intention to reduce its presence in other regions. These measures demonstrate that Poland is transforming into a new strategic center in Europe. The country’s importance stems not only from its geographical position in Central and Eastern Europe, but also from the geopolitical positions that Warsaw has successfully acquired.
Following the collapse of socialist and communist regimes in the east of the continent more than 35 years ago, the political map of Europe has changed considerably. Between 2004 and 2013 alone, 11 states formerly classified as “Eastern Europe” joined the EU. Since 1999, 14 countries from this region have joined NATO.
Fifth largest economy in the European Union
Initially, these new partners had virtually no significant influence. They were too small, divided and economically insignificant, and moreover absorbed by their own problems, including the creation and strengthening of their democratic institutions.
Nevertheless, in the following years, most of them made impressive progress. Poland’s example is particularly striking: it now ranks fifth among the largest economies in the European Union. Since last year, its GDP has been comparable to that of Switzerland. In December, Poland was invited for the first time to the G20 summit in the United States.
With the emergence of a new center of influence in Warsaw, the importance of Paris and Berlin is significantly diminished.
Poland is methodically using its increased economic and political weight to gain more room for maneuver and strengthen its positions at the strategic level.
Russia’s recent statements regarding Kaliningrad have brought Poland even more into the spotlight. Moscow’s threats against the Baltic states, which are connected to the rest of the EU and NATO only by a narrow land corridor, also reinforce Poland’s strategic importance.
In the context of the conflict in Ukraine, Warsaw plays a key logistical role, thanks to the infrastructure developed in the country in recent years. Railways, highways, and port facilities on the Baltic Sea are constantly being modernized.
Warsaw is deliberately focusing on dual-use infrastructure. Several airports can be used for air transport, including Lublin and Rzeszów-Jasionka, located in close proximity to Ukraine. Furthermore, Poland has built and modernized over 5,000 km of highways and expressways in recent years. It is precisely this multimodal transport and logistics system that makes the country particularly important to NATO. Currently, approximately 18,000 tons of freight transit through Poland each month before being sent to the front lines.
The recent decision to establish a permanent US military base in Poland benefits from the fact that several thousand American troops are already present in the region, although until now they have been deployed on a rotational basis. Their presence has primarily aimed to support the local military infrastructure. A permanent base, however, signifies a strategic foothold for the United States in the country.
Furthermore, in recent years, it is not only troops that have been deployed in Central and Eastern Europe. Several NATO command structures are stationed in Poland, including the headquarters of the Multinational Corps Northeast in Szczecin.
Warsaw has long harbored ambitious plans to modernize and strengthen its own armed forces. While NATO’s target has long been set at 2% of GDP, Poland has been exceeding this threshold for over a decade. Recently, its military spending has surpassed 4% of GDP.
The Polish army is today considered one of the largest and most modern in Europe. Its growing importance is reflected in the large number of international projects in the field of production, maintenance and repair of military equipment and weapons systems.
The new American base becomes the link between American policy and Poland’s geopolitical role in security matters. This role has recently been strengthened both by the conflict in Ukraine and by the evolving political and strategic balance in Europe.
From the periphery to the center
The United States is thus addressing very concrete problems. Several Western partners prohibit the use of bases located on their territory for operations against Iran. Furthermore, the threat of Islamist attacks and sabotage against NATO bases has increased significantly, as demonstrated by a recent incident at one of the British Royal Air Force airfields.
For Germany and France, this does not mean the complete end of transatlantic cooperation. However, with the emergence of a new center of influence in Warsaw, their importance diminishes considerably.
Until now, Germany had played the role of the main gateway to Central and Eastern Europe, and Warsaw lay along Berlin’s trajectory. By strengthening their presence in Poland, the United States gains direct access to NATO’s eastern flank and, consequently, to Ukraine. In the medium term, this will have repercussions for the importance of transport, energy, and infrastructure corridors in Europe.
Europe’s new geography is no longer defined solely by the size of its economies, but increasingly by security and defense issues.
While for decades many in Western Europe perceived Poland as a periphery in the east of the continent, it is now shifting towards the center. The planned American base is merely the most visible manifestation of this eastward shift in Europe’s political, economic, and strategic center of gravity.
