European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen’s renewed warnings of tougher trade restrictions against China, coming on the heels of hard-won bilateral agreements, have raised concerns that Brussels is resorting to threats and trade pressure that risk eroding bilateral trust, rather than addressing the structural problems holding back its own industries.
The latest warnings follow intensive China-EU negotiations that yielded concrete gains for both sides, including progress in the automotive sector. Yet Brussels is considering further restrictions across additional industries, even as European businesses caution against the costs of protectionism.
Chinese analysts said the EU’s “talk-while-fighting” approach reflects its difficulties adjusting to a changing industrial landscape rather than newfound economic strength. They warned that threats and protectionism offer no remedy for Europe’s internal challenges and could instead jeopardize recent agreements and erode the trust needed for future negotiations.
Trade weapons, deeper troubles
In a speech to the European Parliament on Wednesday, von der Leyen said the bloc must be prepared to deploy “trade defense instruments” if dialogue fails to deliver results, even as she acknowledged progress in recent China-EU economic and trade consultations, according to a news release published on the EC’s website.
She called for swift safeguard measures when import surges threaten European industries. The Commission also plans to introduce a DiversifyEU package in December to reduce dependence on single suppliers, along with a new instrument to restrict access to the EU single market more quickly when its interests are threatened.
The EU’s tougher posture reflects its struggle to adapt to a changing industrial landscape, particularly as Chinese manufacturers have gained ground in electric vehicles and other emerging industries, Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Thursday.
Europe wants time to rebuild its industrial strength amid pressure from member states and domestic industries, hoping trade restrictions will provide temporary relief, Wang said. “But such measures cannot deliver the technological advances or industrial transformation needed for sustained growth.”
The challenge goes beyond individual products to the industrial systems and technologies shaping the future of manufacturing. Europe needs to strengthen its own capabilities rather than blame China for its internal shortcomings, Wang said.
The EU’s latest tough rhetoric follows a round of intensive China-EU trade talks in Beijing on October 8-9, which produced 16 points of consensus across four areas, including an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade and further consultations on the EU’s anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).
Von der Leyen on Wednesday credited EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic with progress in talks with China, citing greater predictability in rare-earth export controls and an understanding on Chinese-made hybrid vehicle exports. However, she argued that progress in one sector was insufficient to address broader trade imbalances, according to the EC’s release.
Analysts stressed that the hard-won outcomes of China-EU trade talks represent concrete, positive progress and tangible gains for both sides, particularly European businesses seeking greater certainty. Further EU trade restrictions could jeopardize those gains and call into question Brussels’ own professed commitment to honoring agreements.
The EU is stepping up efforts to introduce new trade defense tools, including proposals for a so-called “kill switch” to swiftly restrict market access and a European version of the US Section 301 mechanism. China has repeatedly criticized the proposed new tools as protectionist and unilateralist.
Shi Xiaoli, director of the WTO Law Research Center at China University of Political Science and Law, told the Global Times that the EU’s proposed measures are based on subjective assumptions rather than sufficient evidence, overlooking the fact that Chinese manufacturers’ competitive advantages stem from innovation and a complete industrial supply chain that helps lower costs.
She argued that such measures are discriminatory and arbitrary, raising questions about their compatibility with WTO rules.
The price of protectionism
Even as the EU takes a harder line on trade, there is also recognition of the risks of escalating tensions with China.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Wednesday backed stronger EU trade defense tools to address so-called unfair competition from China. But he said the bloc did not want to make use of its trade defense toolbox, stressing that the goal was to achieve a new balance in trade rather than trigger a conflict, according to Bloomberg.
The economic costs of trade restrictions were highlighted by Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius, who warned on the same day that protectionist measures could raise production costs and distort global supply chains. While greater restrictions could improve resilience, they would also make production more expensive, he said, warning that Europe shouldn’t become “an island” cut off from major trading partners.
European businesses have also urged caution over the broader use of trade restrictions. In a position paper released on Monday, BusinessEurope, a leading European business organization, said the EU should establish clear criteria to distinguish security-sensitive trade from ordinary commercial competition, emphasizing that not all trade with China carries the same risk.
The group stressed that the EU must be transparent about where the costs of its trade measures would fall and be prepared to shoulder the responsibility, warning that China had signaled it would retaliate against EU actions.
Wang said Europe’s heavy reliance on global markets and supply chains makes trade restrictions particularly costly. “European manufacturers depend on Chinese intermediate goods, while German automakers also produce vehicles in China for export,” he said.
Responding to the EU’s proposed “dual-track” approach, MOFCOM said both sides must demonstrate sincerity in resolving their differences through dialogue. It stressed that the EU should not expect to secure benefits through pressure or underestimate China’s determination and ability to safeguard its own interests.
Despite tensions, channels for China-EU engagement remain open. A delegation of 12 members of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade will visit China from October 27 to 29 for talks with Chinese officials and lawmakers. Discussions are expected to cover market access, industrial subsidies, supply chains and critical raw materials, Euronews reported on Wednesday.
Under the agreement reached in Beijing earlier this month, China and the EU are also scheduled to hold a ministerial-level video meeting in January 2027, followed by the third meeting of their Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism in March.
Shi urged the EU to take a more pragmatic approach to trade imbalances rather than invoke economic security concerns to pressure China. “Brussels should abandon confrontational thinking and seize opportunities arising from China’s innovation-driven development to expand mutually beneficial cooperation in green development, new energy and digital industries,” she said.
